WAR TO END WAR

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The war that will end all wars? http://archive.gulfnews.com/opinion/columns/region/10060581.html 08/17/2006 08:18 PM | By George S. Hishmeh, Special to Gulf News What are the chances that the futile month-long war that Israel had launched on Lebanon and the humiliating and embarrassing defeat it was dealt with will serve as "the war that will end all wars" between Israelis and Arabs? It certainly could, if the cards are played correctly. But the chances that this may happen may still be bordering on wishful thinking. And a lot may depend on what the Bush administration and its discredited Israeli ally may want to do, certainly in the months ahead. The two countries have had in the past few months a shady relationship, as the public accounts now clearly attest. Seymour M. Hersh, writing in The New Yorker this week, says the Bush administration "was closely involved in the planning of Israel's retaliatory attacks" against Lebanon's Hezbollah. "Both President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were convinced," the respected American newspaperman reported, "that a successful Israeli Air Force bombing campaign against Hezbollah's heavily fortified underground-missile and command-and-control complexes in Lebanon could ease Israel's security concerns and also serve as a prelude to a potential American preemptive attack to destroy Iran's nuclear installations, some of which are also buried deep underground." Quoting an unidentified Middle East expert with "knowledge of the current thinking of both the Israeli and the US governments", Hersh said the White House "was more focused in striping Hezbollah of its missiles, because, if there was to be a military option against Iran's nuclear facilities, it had to get rid of the weapons that Hezbollah could use in a potential retaliation at Israel". Bombing plan In high-level discussions in Washington cited by Hersh, Israel was apparently able to convince Washington of its bombing plan by citing "the war in Kosovo as an example of what Israel could try to achieve". He added, "The Israelis told (Secretary of State) Condi Rice, 'you did it in about 75 days, but we need half of that 35 days'." But Israeli columnist Gideon Levy of Haaretz, weighing the failure of Israel's Lebanese misadventure, expressed hope that this "might teach the Americans the important lesson that there is no point in pushing Israel into military adventures". Had Israel succeeded, Levy feared, "the US would have pushed us into a military clash with Syria and, drunk with victory, we might have been tempted. Iran might have been next". Further, he went on, Israel would be tempted "to solve the Palestinian problem at its root by pounding, erasing, bombing and shelling". Regardless of who was pushing whom in this fiasco, the results have once again exposed the Bush administration's incompetence in foreign affairs and for the first time cut Israel down to size. Richard Armitage, a former secretary of state, advised: "If the most dominant military force in the region the Israel Defence Forces can't pacify a country such as Lebanon, with a population of four million, you should think carefully about taking that template to Iran, with strategic depth and population of 70 million … The only thing that the [Israeli] bombing has achieved so far is to unite the population against the Israelis." Logical options There are only two logical options for the Bush administration and Israel. President Bush, who was deluding himself when he thought Hezbollah was defeated, may however feel satisfied if the Lebanese Islamists will stay out of south Lebanon, an unlikely possibility now that their stature has reached sky high in the region. At this stage, the only course for the Bush administration, if it hopes to improve its ruined stature, would be to follow up immediately with convincing Israel to give up the occupied Sheba'a Farms and the exchange of prisoners, the long-delayed issue that had prompted Hezbollah to abduct the two Israeli soldiers in early July. Once the ball starts rolling, US diplomacy should immediately turn its attention to the Arab-Israeli issue whereby Israel would be convinced to give up the Golan Heights as Syria has been demanding in return for a peace treaty with Israel, not unlike those signed by Egypt and Jordan. But more importantly, the Bush administration ought to be more serious and sensible about negotiating a final settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The opportunity could not be better than at present. Israel and hopefully Washington had learned a hard lesson about the futility of military options as a tool for international diplomacy. The first test for the Bush administration may come at the end of this month when the US and its European partners have to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions. But if they fail, this may regrettably encourage all those who had wild dreams to try again in a few years' time dashing all hopes for peace in the region. George Hishmeh is a Washington-based columnist. He can be contacted at ghishmeh@gulfnews.com