The Surge Mentality

We went into Iraq for....(you choose whichever excuse you prefer)...to get al-Qaeda and it has been reported that they are on the run, so that would mean that we won, right? Oh hell no, it was never about winning, but that is another post later.

We formed alliances with some of the Sunni tribes in the fight for Anbar province. It was fortuitous for the US, but the tribes were wanting to rid themselves of AQ and the US was just a necessary tolerance. The idea is being expanded to areas around Baghdad with the hopes it will have a similar outcome. (Sorry I am smiling).

Shi'a power brokers in the South are feeling threatened. They are afraid the US is building more militias, in a country that is over run with them. The there is the Kurds, they are concerned that the US is build a group that will threaten their control of the North. And possibly turn their anger towards the Kurds. And then there is the concern by lots of people that AQ was going to infiltrate these groups and resurface stronger than ever.

The US is doing nothing more than creating more militias that will be at each others throats soon. Basra has Shi'a on Shi'a violence, the Sunni tribes are suspicious of each other and that will degrade into Sunni on Sunni violence. If that goes well they will turn on the opposition or the Kurds. Violence is gonna be a reality not a fantasy.

The US is accomplishing one thing, they will turn Iraq into another Afghanistan. We are creating warlords and such. Each one will be controlling a little piece of Iraq. And we have seen just how stable Afghanistan has been in the past. Iraq has something to look forward to in the future.

Nothing the US can do to change the inevitability of the violence to come, they can however pat themselves on the back to bring about this change and the violence that is to come.

CHUQ